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ECONOMY | 14.01.2021

Coronavirus: financial analysis XXXIX

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Uneven recovery for 2021: A look at the prospects for certain markets

The latest events in Washington demonstrate the level of tension the world is under. In the midst of this climate of uncertainty, the year of recovery is beginning, but it will be uneven among countries, according to the latest MAPFRE Economics Outlook report. Precisely, it is expected that the United States will be the first to recover the level of GDP in 2019, followed by Brazil.

Threats for 2021: global debt warning

The COVID-19 recession has pushed the global Debt/GDP ratio to a new all-time high of 356% in the third quarter of 2020. MAPFRE Economics analyses this and other risks to the economy, such as accumulated financial imbalances, the problems of secular stagnation, ageing, climate change and social deterioration.

MAPFRE Economics forecasts an average of 4.5 percent rebound in the global economy this year and 2022

MAPFRE Economics expects the global economy to grow an average of 4.5 percent in 2021 and 2022. Economic activity will return to normal in the middle of the third quarter of this year, although overall, the world will not recover from the crisis until mid-2022. This central view faces enormous challenges stemming from the scars of an unprecedented crisis that takes place in a context of global imbalances.

Impact of the crisis on Spanish insurance: two scenarios

MAPFRE Economics presents two scenarios for the evolution of the Spanish insurance sector over the next 12 months: one optimistic and the other pessimistic depending on the development of the pandemic. These forecasts are based on activity determinants (industrial production, tourism, etc.) financial variables (credit, savings, etc.) and expectations (of consumers and producers) depending on the degree of social restriction imposed in line with the evolution of the pandemic.

MAPFRE AM offers revamped benchmark beating Global Bond fund to private and institutional investors

MAPFRE AM, MAPFRE’s asset management unit, is merging two of its global fixed income funds with the intention of widening its distribution base to private and institutional investors. The MAPFRE AM Global Bond Fund, a Global Fixed Income fund, and the Capital Investment Spain International Fund, managed by Amundi exclusively for MAPFRE companies since 1993, will merge maintaining the name of the former.

“We maintain a high allocation to the stock market because the trend is positive”

Caution is once again being imposed on the stock markets, after the latest events in the US or the arrival of the third wave. But Matellán affirms, in an interview with Radio Intereconomía, that the tendency continues to be positive. In fact, he confirms that 2021 will be the year of recovery despite the growing risks.