ECONOMY | 20.05.2021
The pace of the vaccination campaign may unleash a sea of uncertainty around the economic recovery. Gonzalo de Cadenas Santiago, director of macroeconomics and financial analysis at MAPFRE Economics, explains in EL CONFIDENCIAL the pressure which is being exerted by the tourism sector, among others, to vaccinate the entire population and reach a situation of normality as soon as possible.
Life expectancy has increased steadily over the last decades, thanks in large part to improved health services and a reduction in infant mortality rate. Spain, which is set to overtake Japan as the country with longest life expectancy by 2040, faces the additional challenge of ensuring that the elderly participate fully in society, both from an economic and social perspective.
The insurance business model, unlike other financial institutions, is squarely built on effective investment strategies. MAPFRE Economics analyzes the evolution and distribution of the investment portfolios of insurance companies which, due to the nature of the business and its regulatory framework, lead them to invest a large part of their funds in good-quality sovereign and corporate debt.
The upside potential of stock markets seems to be unaffected by a slight increase in risks compared to a couple of months ago. Alberto Matellán, MAPFRE Inversión’s chief economist, analyzes the possible decisions taken by central banks in the coming months and points out that the sharp falls in commodities and the rise in inflation could convert some cyclical stocks into an investment opportunity.
The uncertainty around economic recovery and the possibility of a third COVID-19 wave are the main problems that Latin American countries must face. Oscar García-Serrano, chief financial officer of MAPFRE in Brazil, suggests that another flashpoint to be reckoned with is inflation, on the back of a rally in commodities and a depreciation in local currencies in some regions.