The United States enters 2026 from a position of resilience, but it is not immune to uncertainty. Tensions in the Middle East, higher energy prices, and still-tight financial conditions are shifting the economic balance, creating risks for the U.S. economy that could grow if volatility persists.

This is the assessment of Mapfre Economics, Mapfre’s research arm, in its report 2026 Economic and Industry Outlook: Second-Quarter Forecast Update, published by Fundación Mapfre. Specifically, the research service expects the world’s largest economy to grow by 2% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. This represents a downward revision of two tenths of a percentage point for this year, due to the conflict between the United States and Iran. Forecasts for next year remain unchanged.

Inflation, however, has changed significantly. Prices are now expected to rise by 3.3% this year and 2.1% next year, compared with forecasts of 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively, at the start of the year, before the conflict began.

The United States appears better positioned than other major economies to absorb several months of higher inflation, thanks to its role as an energy producer, the flexibility of its productive base, and the depth and sophistication of its financial markets, which help cushion the impact of the shock.

March inflation rose to 3.3% year-on-year, confirming that disinflation has lost momentum, while also showing that some components are moving in a more contained, though uneven, pattern. “Much of the upward pressure came from energy and from items that rely heavily on fuel and logistics, while disinflation in housing and core services showed some signs of stabilizing,” explains Eduardo García Castro, expert economist at Mapfre Economics.

The report notes that, if the geopolitical conflict remains contained, the macroeconomic impact could be felt “more as noise than as a break in the cycle.” This resilience would be uneven. The main source of vulnerability lies less in the energy channel than in the financial channel, particularly in the rapid growth of private lending.

Indeed, a prolonged environment of higher energy costs, squeezed corporate margins, and interest rates staying higher for longer “would quietly strain a segment of the financial system that is highly dependent on demanding valuations, continuous refinancing, and robust cash flows.”

Against this backdrop, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided at its April meeting to keep interest rates at current levels, at a time when neither tightening nor loosening its stance would guarantee a clear improvement in the balance between activity and prices. This means the Fed must prioritize caution, consistency, and the preservation of its institutional framework over short-term tactical responses.

What if geopolitical tensions persist?

Mapfre Economics has always set out two scenarios in its quarterly forecasts: a more likely baseline scenario and an alternative, more stressed scenario that factors in additional variables. This time, Mapfre’s research arm explains that higher energy prices, logistics disruptions, and a sustained increase in the geopolitical risk premium, combined with high uncertainty, “are pushing the outlook toward the adverse scenario, which is no longer merely a possibility and is instead beginning to take shape as an observable dynamic of weaker economic growth, more persistent inflation, and a further loss of room for economic policy.”

In this more stressed scenario, the key differentiating factor would no longer be the emergence of another new shock, but the simultaneous interaction of several critical forces, such as the duration of the conflict, the actual damage to energy supply, and the normalization of transport, with macroeconomic variables reacting in ways that are not necessarily linear.

This combination shifts the adverse scenario toward a more severe form of stagflation. It would therefore not be a case of low growth with moderately high, temporary inflation, but rather one in which inflation remains higher for longer, filters through to expectations, relative prices, and financial conditions, and coexists with clearly weaker growth.