The report “Economic and Sectoral Outlook 2026: Forecast Update for the Second Quarter” by Mapfre Economics highlights that the rising cost of energy, logistical disruptions, and the intensification of geopolitical risks are reigniting inflationary pressures just when stability seemed near. As the document states, “the global economy operates in an environment marked by incomplete information and shorter decision-making horizons.”
The result is an uncomfortable scenario: prices are proving resistant to a clear decline, growth is losing momentum, and central banks are being forced to act within an increasingly narrow margin. Every decision can tip the balance between an orderly slowdown or a period of stagflation.
United States: resilience in an uncertain environment
The United States appears better positioned to absorb several months of high inflation. Its status as an energy producer, the flexibility of its productive fabric, and the depth of its financial markets act as buffers against the shock. In a scenario where the geopolitical conflict does not escalate, the impact could be felt more as noise than as a break in the economic cycle.
Mapfre Economics forecasts an inflation of 3.3% this year and 2.1% next year, while the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged. Even so, the disinflation process is showing signs of losing momentum. As Eduardo García Castro explains, “the process of disinflation in housing and in the core of services showed some stabilization.”
Europe: the risk of stagflation becomes more visible
Europe is, according to the report, the region where the slide towards a risk scenario is most evident. The continent will continue to grow, but at a weaker pace and under a higher and more volatile inflation regime. The ECB maintains a restrictive stance, prioritizing the control of expectations in a context where macroeconomic fragility has intensified.
The forecasts point to an inflation of 2.5% this year and 2% next year, although the balance is fragile. If the geopolitical conflict is not channeled, Europe could slide into a more severe form of stagflation, with anemic growth and very limited room for economic policy action.
Asia: higher inflation and risk of physical restrictions
Asia is facing a similar impact to Europe, but with a critical nuance: its greater exposure to energy trade and affected maritime routes. The report warns that the shock could quickly shift from higher prices to physical supply restrictions. In several Southeast Asian countries, rationing measures and preventive production adjustments are already being observed, adding a different dimension to the inflationary episode.
Latin America: heterogeneity and absorption capacity
Inflation in Latin America will be at 8.8% this year and 7.8% next year, despite being one of the regions least exposed to the conflict. The absorption capacity of the shock varies according to the productive structure of each country. Brazil stands out for its resilience, thanks to its lower external energy vulnerability and a more diversified economy. Mexico, on the other hand, shows a more fragile balance due to its dependence on imports of gasoline and gas.
Geopolitics as the pillar of the economic cycle
The report concludes that the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has not created a new economic framework, but it has accelerated a trend that was already underway: geopolitics has become the axis that orders the global economic cycle. As Mapfre Economics points out, “anchoring expectations in a dominant trajectory” has become especially difficult in an environment where international coordination is increasingly limited.
