2020 Economic and Industry Outlook: Second Quarter Perspectives

The emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic has radically altered the prospects for world growth and insurance markets. The contagion process, together with the imposed suppression measures, produces demand, supply and financial effects that will cause a global recession of close to -3% of GDP in the best of cases, with the Eurozone as the region where the effect may be greater and Latin America where the risk of becoming a depression is more relevant given its vulnerabilities. In our base scenario, however, the measures taken, and the nature of the virus will give way to a recovery during 2021 that we also expect will translate into consumption and demand for financial services in general.