2026 Economic and industry outlook

The 2026 edition of the report describes a global economy characterized by functional resilience, where systemic risk management compensates for a lack of intrinsic cyclical strength. Uncertainty is becoming a structural feature of the economic environment, driving a geopolitical reconfiguration that prioritizes security over efficiency and “militarizes” economic interdependence. In this context, consumption polarization and fluctuating inflation have forced central banks to adopt macroprudential approaches, shaping a fragile transition toward global potential growth. For the insurance industry, the scenario of controlled inflation and structurally higher interest rates is favorable. The Non-Life segment benefits from moderating claims costs and improved financial returns, while the Life segment capitalizes on the interest rate environment to strengthen margins and the attractiveness of savings.