2026 Economic and industry outlook: second-quarter forecast update

The report presents the quarterly update of macroeconomic forecasts and premium growth projections for the insurance sector for the second quarter of 2026. The global economic cycle is moving toward a “stagflationary” environment, driven by geopolitical tensions, logistical disruptions, and energy shocks. Geopolitics is emerging as the guiding force, subordinating monetary policy to rigorous risk management. At the regional level, the impact is asymmetric: the U.S. vulnerability lies in pressures on prices and private credit; Europe and Asia face production bottlenecks and persistent inflationary pressures; while Latin America exhibits relative resilience, heavily dependent on its primary exports. The insurance industry shows some resilience, driven by nominal growth stemming from inflation, though subject to heightened financial volatility. The Life segment manages to sustain itself through investment returns, while the Non-Life segment will require strict underwriting discipline and rate adjustments to mitigate the erosion of operating margins in the face of rising claims costs.