In an environment marked by technological acceleration, volatility, and the constant transformation of customer habits, planning is no longer just about setting medium- and long-term objectives. For Mapfre, strategic foresight involves defining where it wants to evolve the business, but also systematically reviewing what decisions it must make today to sustain that growth in different future contexts.

That look is complemented by futurecasting, a methodology that the company uses to analyze trends, emerging signals, and critical variables that can disrupt the insurance industry. Instead of trying to predict what will happen, Mapfre builds plausible scenarios about how technology, regulation, or customer behavior might evolve, and studies what implications each of them would have.

“It’s not just about setting the course, but about preparing the business for different plausible environments and adapting the strategy as key factors evolve,” says Bárbara Fernández, Deputy Director of Corporate Innovation at Mapfre.

From research to scenarios: the methodology

The approach that Mapfre applies is based on a clear principle: to analyze transformations from the outside in. Instead of only asking how to use a technology, the exercise begins by studying how that technology can modify society, behaviors, and the competitive environment.

The first phase consists of in-depth research that combines interviews with specialized sources from Mapfre or from an external context. The profiles interviewed are not limited to the technological field; they include economists, regulatory experts, social science specialists, and professionals with strategic vision. The objective? Obtain a broad understanding of the phenomenon under analysis.

Based on this research, trends and factors that influence the evolution of the studied field are identified. The factors with the greatest impact are called drivers and are classified according to their degree of variability. And the most uncertain drivers are established with possible maximum and minimum ranges.

The methodology does not assign probabilities, but rather works on possible options. With these elements, several scenarios are constructed—usually four—that combine extremes and differentiated variables to cover a wide range of alternatives. In each scenario, an immersion exercise is conducted to analyze implications, opportunities, and threats for the insurance industry. Subsequently, common elements are identified among scenarios, which allows for reducing uncertainty and guiding more solid action plans.

The strategy is defined based on that analysis and is adjusted as each driver evolves. This continuous monitoring allows for adapting the course without reacting erratically to every new development in the market.

Generating AI and the future of interaction

Mapfre has applied this methodology in different technological fields. One of the most recent cases is the generative AI report, focused on how this technology can transform society and the insurance industry. Another example is the work on the future of interaction, focused on the role of AI agents and its impact on the relationship between customers and companies.

These exercises are not limited to reflection. In the analysis of generative AI, changes in digital search patterns were identified following the popularization of conversational tools. Emerging situations were also detected, such as interactions between automated agents and customer service centers—an emerging scenario that raises new questions about customer experience, internal processes, and regulation.

Anticipating in order to grow

In an environment where organizations react in a fragmented manner to each trend, having strategic foresight provides a framework for making decisions with greater consistency and overall vision. Also used by international organizations such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in their strategic foresight analysis, this report helps prepare for different viable future scenarios and align internal priorities with greater rigor.

The process adds value because it forces us to question assumptions, broaden the analysis of the environment, and align internal priorities.

Anticipation does not eliminate uncertainty, but it allows it to be managed with greater rigor. By exploring plausible scenarios, identifying common implications, and reviewing plans based on the evolution of the drivers, Mapfre integrates anticipation into its decision-making process and strengthens its capacity for sustainable growth in an environment of constant transformation.