2022 Economic and industry outlook: third quarter perspectives

Continuing tensions in supply chains, the complex geopolitical factor and central banks’ tightening of monetary policies are, among other elements, continuing to drive the global economy toward a stagflation scenario where the chances of a recession are increasing. Thus, a shift in the forecast range can be observed toward a scenario of declining global activity (3.0% and 2.7% in 2022 and 2023, compared to 3.6% and 3.6% in the previous report) and rising inflation, with a global deterioration toward levels of economic stagnation, albeit with regional divergences. As such, the tightening of monetary policy will dampen aggregate demand, cooling the economy in an environment of higher than expected and longer-lasting inflation, which will in turn erode household purchasing power and business margins, thereby negatively impacting the development and profitability of the insurance business and putting pressure on the pricing of insurance products.