The sustainability of sovereign and corporate debt has become established as one of the main sources of macro-financial risk for the global economy, according to Mapfre Economics, Mapfre’s Research Department, in its report “Economic and Sector Outlook 2026: Perspectives for the Second Half”.

In the United States, the public deficit remains at historically high levels (above 5% of GDP projected for 2026), with no clear prospects for short-term correction, implying a sustained increase in the Treasury’s financing needs. However, the persistence of high deficits increases the sensitivity of financing costs to any uptick in inflation or deterioration in fiscal confidence.

Mapfre Economics explains that an increase in term premiums could put strain on interest rate curves, crowd out private-sector financing, and generate valuation losses in the portfolios of banks, insurers, and investment funds.

That said, this is far from the only risk to the global economy considered in the report:

Inflation, for example, is one of them. The risk of a renewed upturn has increased as a result of the intensifying conflict in the Middle East and heightened uncertainty over the global energy supply. This, in turn, affects the actions of central banks, where the main risk is a calibration error: if they cut interest rates too soon to sustain economic activity or ease fiscal pressure, they could reignite inflation expectations, push up the term premium, and strain interest rate curves.

Energy markets remain exposed to high volatility, with risks on both the supply and demand sides. The United States’ war with Iran and the disruption of passage through the Strait of Hormuz have caused the largest supply disruption in the recent history of the oil market; the International Energy Agency estimates that global supply will fall by 3.9 million barrels per day in 2026, and warns that the normalization of flows from the Persian Gulf will be gradual.

China’s economy, for its part, maintains a certain rising risk profile due to the combination of real estate weakness, fragile domestic demand, and pressure on local governments. The adjustment in the residential sector continues: ratings agency Fitch forecasts that new home sales will fall between 11% and 13% in 2026, reflecting weak buyer confidence. Added to this is a slowdown in consumption: in May, retail sales fell for the first time since the pandemic, while real estate investment continued to contract. The main risk is that China will combine weak economic growth with corporate margins squeezed by rising energy costs, limiting its capacity for stimulus.

Separately, climate change continues to solidify as a systemic risk to the global economy and the financial sector. The greater frequency and intensity of extreme weather events is driving up economic and insured losses, pushing premiums higher and reducing available coverage in the most exposed regions. This loss of insurability increases risk for households, businesses, and financial institutions, as it erodes the value of real estate assets and heightens the vulnerability of mortgage and corporate credit.

Against this global backdrop, liquidity and market functioning risks remain elevated due to the combination of high leverage, substantial refinancing needs, and reduced intermediation capacity during periods of stress. At the same time, the rapid growth of investment in AI is creating a new risk of interconnection and circular financing. The IMF has warned that AI developers, chip manufacturers, and major tech companies are simultaneously acting as customers, investors, and financiers of one another, creating linkages between publicly traded and private companies with very different financial profiles.

If you would like to read more about the risks to the global economy, you can access the full report at this link.