Even so, this environment continues to support economic activity and, consequently, demand for insurance, according to Mapfre Economics’ report, “Economic and Industry Outlook 2026: Perspectives for the Second Half of the Year.”
Despite these positive prospects, Mapfre Economic Research highlights that the insurance sector’s composition will be less homogeneous and will face greater risks stemming from geopolitical, trade, fiscal, and energy-related tensions.
Specifically, the Non-Life insurance segment is expected to maintain positive nominal growth, although at a slower pace in 2026 than in 2025. Slowing activity in some advanced economies, weak European industrial activity, and a slowdown in certain emerging markets are limiting the acceleration of insurance activity. Global Non-Life insurance premiums are expected to grow by 5.7% in 2026, before regaining some momentum in 2027, reaching 6.0%.
In the Life insurance segment, the financial environment remains favorable for savings and annuity products, although demand will depend on the pace of monetary policy normalization and household disposable income. The latest estimates put global Life insurance premium growth at 6.2% in 2025, 5.9% in 2026, and 6.8% in 2027.
“The forecasts point to solid and relatively balanced nominal growth, although Life insurance is expected to make a somewhat larger contribution in 2027. Quarterly trends in the global insurance market also reflect a pattern of stable, synchronized growth across the Life and Non-Life segments,” Mapfre Economic Research notes in the report.
Mapfre Economics also highlights in the report the high regional dispersion of the insurance industry. This heterogeneity is observed both in the growth prospects and in the contribution of each market to the global expansion of the business. While developed Asia and Oceania, China, and North America will continue to account for a significant share of premium growth in the coming years, other regions will advance at a more moderate pace, shaped by factors such as economic conditions, inflation, interest rates, and the regulatory environment.
The report highlights that these differences require insurers to adapt their strategies to the specific characteristics of each market, in an environment marked by increasing fragmentation and significant differences across regions, products, and business segments.
Three percent growth for the global economy
Mapfre Economics expects the global economy to grow by 3% this year and 3.1% next year, with inflation at 3.8% and 3.1%, respectively. Mapfre Economic Research explains that, during the first half of 2026, the global economy maintained a path of moderate growth, with inflation continuing to ease, albeit unevenly, in an environment marked by heightened risks and uncertainty. Macroeconomic stability appears to depend more on the effective management of existing risks than on a fully consolidated economic equilibrium.
Looking ahead to the second half of 2026 and 2027, the primary scenario remains practically unchanged. The main lesson from recent months has been that economic stability depends more on the ability to absorb and contain existing tensions than on resolving them definitively. Against this backdrop, continued moderate economic growth and a gradual reduction in inflation will depend on keeping risks under control, although developments will become increasingly differentiated across regions.
You can access the full report here.
