Economic and Industry Outlook 2018: Third Quarter Perspectives

Although global activity maintained its cyclical momentum in the second and part of the third quarter, it is continuously less synchronous, more fragile and more dependent on stimuli from the US. US trade, economic and international policies have become a source of shocks, with global repercussions in the appreciation of the USD, volatility of the Brent and global activity and trade expectations. Although so far this has not led to a risk event, the accumulation of global imbalances, the cycle itself reaching its end, and the US administration’s ability to provoke volatility on all levels on a global scale, make caution necessary. The current base scenario is an organized cyclical adjustment, though recently the probability of a more severe adjustment is growing.