The outlook is positive, though modest. Latin America will continue to grow in the coming years, but at moderate rates, constrained by both external and internal factors that limit its full potential. These are the main conclusions of the 2026 Economic and Industry Outlook, prepared by Mapfre Economics. Global uncertainty, persistent inflation, and geopolitical tensions are emerging as key risks to growth. Although expansion remains positive, it lacks strong momentum.

How is the region growing?

The report describes a global economic environment marked by resilient fundamentals, where uncertainty has become a structural feature of the world economy. This reality is affecting Latin American economies, which are trying to balance growth with price stability in a complex international context.

Mapfre Economics thus forecasts moderate GDP growth for the region, at around 2.1% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027. Inflation is expected to remain elevated, at approximately 8.3% in 2026 and 8.1% in 2027, reflecting price pressures that haven’t yet fully eased.

The region continues to lag behind other emerging markets due to structural constraints that limit a stronger economic takeoff. These include low levels of productive investment and dependence on certain slow-growing industries.

Constraints and opportunities

In addition to inflation—which limits regional central banks’ room for maneuver and erodes purchasing power across broad segments of the population—other factors are shaping the region’s path.

The report notes that strategic selectivity in global trade, where supply security now outweighs efficiency, is reshaping production chains. This geopolitical backdrop complicates Latin American economies’ integration into global value chains, while also influencing capital flows and investment decisions.

At the same time, the recovery in consumption remains uneven due to persistent inequality. Higher-income households continue to sustain demand, while middle- and lower-income households face stagnant wages and tighter credit conditions that constrain spending and hinder more inclusive growth.

Which countries will grow the most?

The 2026 Economic and Industry Outlook underscores that the current year will be one of fragile transition. Both regional and global economies will seek to balance growth with disinflation under prudent macroeconomic policies, though with limited room for maneuver. Managing uncertainty will be key to sustaining the recovery and strengthening the foundations for future growth.

Among the more dynamic economies, Mexico is expected to post gradual improvement, with GDP growth of around 1.4% in 2026 and 2% in 2027. However, declining investment remains a significant constraint. Brazil, with projected growth of 1.6% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, could benefit from faster disinflation than the rest of the region. A recovery in margins may create space for rate cuts, supporting both investment and credit expansion.

Argentina is advancing toward macroeconomic normalization, reducing imbalances and regaining market access. This adjustment could bring growth closer to levels consistent with its productive potential. GDP is projected to increase by 3.2% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027.

Meanwhile, Chile and Peru are experiencing a more contained slowdown than initially anticipated, supported by resilient mining investment and sustained demand for strategic commodities such as lithium and copper. Chile’s GDP is forecast to grow by around 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027. In Peru, growth could reach 2.9% in 2026 and 3% in 2027.

Colombia is expected to see somewhat stronger activity, supported by an expanding manufacturing sector, although fiscal deficit pressures remain a challenge. GDP growth is estimated at 2.8% in 2026 and at a similar rate in 2027.

The potential of the insurance industry

The analysis highlights structural advantages and sectors with expansion potential. For example, a high interest rate environment combined with moderating inflation could support insurance activity in Latin America, where penetration remains relatively low compared with more economically dynamic regions.

By country, Argentina leads projected regional growth, with Non-Life expected to increase by more than 36.2% in 2026 and 26.7% in 2027, while Life premiums could grow by 33.6% and 25.7%, respectively. Mexico also shows strong momentum, particularly in Non-Life insurance, with projected growth of 12.3% in 2026 and 13.1% in 2027. Life insurance is expected to increase by 10.2% in 2026 and 10.6% in 2027. In Peru, Life insurance is forecast to deliver the strongest gains, at 11.8% in 2026 and 12.1% in 2027, compared with more moderate Non-Life growth of 2.2% and 2.7%.

Colombia and Brazil are projected to post stable but more moderate expansion. In the Colombian market, Non-Life is expected to grow by 9.2% in both years, while Life could increase by 10.6% in 2026 and 8.5% in 2027. In Brazil, Non-Life growth is estimated at 7.1% in 2026, easing slightly to 6.9% in 2027, while Life insurance is projected to expand by 5% and 5.4%, respectively. Finally, Chile is expected to record Non-Life premium growth of 4.2% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, with Life growth of around 11.5% in 2026 and 9.9% in 2027.