The global economy has transitioned to a state of functional resilience, sustained by the management of systemic risks rather than by the intrinsic strength of the economic cycle. This scenario confirms uncertainty as a structural, rather than transitory, characteristic of the global environment, as per the Economic and Industry Outlook 2026 report, prepared by Mapfre Economics. Estimates for 2026 point to real global GDP growth of 3.1% (one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the previous year) and global inflation of 3.1%. This trend is expected to continue in 2027 with a progressive, albeit more moderate, outlook and gradual disinflation of the global economy. In this scenario of relative stability, the insurance sector finds a favorable environment for solid and sustainable development, according to studies by Mapfre Economics.

Non-life: stable but lower growth

By segment, there’s a strong correlation between economic growth and non-life insurance. These products will experience positive growth, favored by lower inflationary pressure and the stabilization of claims costs, especially in sensitive lines such as motor, homeowners, and health. Following an estimated premium growth of 6.04% for 2025, forecasts point to increases in this segment of 5.37% and 5.34% for 2026 and 2027, respectively. It’s therefore expected that the growth trajectory will continue, although moderately slower than the rapid pace observed in previous years.

Life insurance: even more favorable growth

The impact of the macroeconomic scenario on life insurance is shaping up to be even more favorable. Still-high interest rates, disinflation—which improves policyholders’ perception of real returns—and a certain recovery in household purchasing power are acting as catalysts to boost demand for these insurance policies, especially in the savings category.

With a projected growth rate of 6.21% for 2025, life insurance is expected to see growth rates of 6.05% for 2026 and 6.23% for 2027. This insurance business shows remarkable strength to continue its expansion and will maintain a balanced trajectory, according to the study.

Regional contribution to growth in life insurance and key countries

The report also analyzes the regional contribution to the growth of insurance activity and the impact of the macroeconomic environment in key markets. Specifically, in life insurance, the study observes that North America represents the largest growth driver, contributing 2.3 percentage points (pp) of the total. Developed Asia, Oceania, the European Union, and the United Kingdom follow with a contribution of 1 pp, while China contributes 0.9 pp, emerging Asia contributes approximately 0.4 pp, and the regions of Latin America, Europe (excluding the EU), the Middle East, and Africa each contribute 0.3 pp.

By country, the forecast for life insurance premium growth varies considerably more. Argentina stands out with a projected growth of 33.6% in 2026 and 25.7% in 2027, followed by Turkey with 27.5% in 2026 and 23.2% in 2027. Spain also shows strong growth with 13.5% and 7.4% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, as does Portugal with 13.4% (2026) and 10.2% (2027). Peru (11.8% and 12.1%) is also projected to exceed 10%, followed by Chile (11.5% and 9.9%) and Colombia (10.6% and 8.5%).

Regional contribution to non-life growth and key countries

As far as non-life goes, market growth is concentrated in a limited number of economies, with a more even distribution. North America is seen as the main driver, contributing 4.6 percentage points. Next up are developed Asia and Oceania with 1.6 pp, followed by the European Union and the United Kingdom, each adding approximately 0.8 pp. The regions with the smallest contributions are China with 0.5 pp, Latin America with 0.2 pp, and emerging Asia, Europe (excluding the EU), the Middle East, and Africa, each contributing 0.1 pp.

Regarding the increase in premiums by country within the non-life lines, Argentina also stands out with 36.2% and 26.7% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, and Turkey with 26.7% in 2026 and 23.3% in 2027. They are followed, but at a distance, by Mexico, which could grow by 12.3% and 13.1% in 2026 and 2027. Below 10 points, the forecasts point to Colombia with 9.2% for 2026 and 2027, and China with 7.5% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027; and Spain, which would increase by 7.4% and 6.8% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

Conclusions

The Mapfre Economics Panorama report indicates a globally robust insurance sector that capitalizes on financial returns and adapts to the economic conditions of each market. The 2026-2027 period presents a scenario of sustained growth in insurance demand, supported by macroeconomic normalization and convergence towards inflation rates compatible with the sector’s technical stability. Globally, it will continue to expand at a solid pace in the following years, especially in the life business and to a lesser extent in non-life.

You can access the full report here.