Economic and financial information
The analysis and research work of MAPFRE Economic Research focuses on topics related to insurance and complementary social security, macroeconomic and financial variables and regulatory frameworks. With the aim to foster analysis, different types of reports will be produced:
Outlook reports that provide a general overview of the main prospects, forecasts and macroeconomic and financial trends for the year in question, as well as an assessment of their impact on the insurance business. This annual report is supplemented by quarterly updates in which the analysis of the most relevant events and developments of the period is considered.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2020
2020 is expected to be the year in which global economic growth stabilizes at low levels, similar to 2019, taking steps towards convergence, with rates similar to those recorded in the last five-year period, close to global potential. Differential contributions will come from emerging countries, thanks to more benign financial conditions and improved exchange terms primarily for agricultural raw materials. Developed markets will avoid greater deceleration thanks to the reactivation of very lax monetary policies, although their convenience at this point in the cycle is open for debate. Growth will be tenuous and above all fragile, given the known and unknown risks looming over the global panorama, specifically those coming from financial imbalances and the recent developments in global geopolitics.
The path to deceleration in which the global economy is currently immersed is affecting the development of the insurance business, specifically the Non-Life and Life Protection segments, which are slowing down on an aggregate level. The generalized application of accommodative monetary policies are helping to stop this trend and could contribute to reverting the situation, but they have locked interest rates at absolute low levels in developed countries and relative low levels in emerging countries, compared to levels reached in previous years. This situation, along with the deceleration of economic growth, limits the development of the traditional Life Savings and Annuity businesses. However, the positive behavior of stock markets constitutes a stimulus for Life insurance products in which the policyholder bears the investment risk, in those countries in which these types of products have reached a significant weight.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019: Fourth Quarter Perspectives
We find ourselves in a situation in which factors like the trade war and other crises are weighing on global economies, creating a situation in which one additional shock could push the balance toward recession, although a situation like this is still not included in the base scenario considered in the report. However, there are various indicators of a worldwide recession, and they cannot be ignored. In this situation, the ability to turn a deceleration around with the usual monetary and fiscal levers could be difficult. This situation is one of global vulnerability, which, despite not constituting a central scenario, has an ever-increasing possibility of recession, instruments to face it that are increasingly more limited, and social and economic consequences that are increasingly more uncertain.Economic and Industry Outlook 2019: Fourth Quarter Perspectives (English)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019: Fourth Quarter Perspectives (Spanish)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019: Third Quarter Perspectives
The report highlights the unequivocal signs of change in the economic cycle, the shift in global monetary policy, and its effect on flows, emerging currencies and exchange rates. The base scenario has slightly stressed from the effects of the trade war, but projected growth for 2019 overall continues to pivot around the global potential (3.3 percent). Likewise, the report highlights that the slowdown in global economic activity will wind up transferring to the insurance premium dynamic. More accommodating monetary policy measures could soften the impact on the insurance business, although they will negatively affect the Life savings and Annuities products.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019: Second Quarter Perspectives
Economic growth consolidates the change of cycle, foreseeing rates of growth closer to the global potential that are ultimately, in line with the theory of secular stagnation, more meager than in the previous decade. Lower growth in the short-term seems to be rooted in the effects of the deceleration in Europe, the lower impetus of activity in China, and the direct and indirect effects of the rising import tariffs led by the United States. This outlook has led to a new twist in global monetary and fiscal policy with the aim of trying to maintain economic activity levels.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019
The report emphasizes the fact that the close of 2018 marks the beginning of the path of gradual deceleration that has been anticipated since the end of 2017. This economic slowdown (which will imply global growth close to 3.3 percent for 2019) will include three characteristics: it will be increasingly asynchronous and fragile; it will have less intense activity and inflation; and it will develop in less favorable and divergent financial conditions. This economic context will continue to favor the insurance market, but the deceleration of the key economies and the ending of the cycle could begin to impact premium growth in the insurance market, especially in the Non-Life and Life Protection segments, given their strong connection to the behavior of the economic cycle.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018: Fourth Quarter Perspectives
Various factors seem to crystalize the signs that have been visible since the beginning of the year announcing the change in cycle of the global economy led by the United States economy. Starting in 2019, global growth will reduce, giving way to a central soft-landing scenario in which the global GDP will stand close to potential. Developed and emerging countries will contribute to this growth similarly (though less than before), and there will be a loss of coordination of monetary policy on a global level. Our central scenario has strong downside risks, primarily originating in USA and China.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018: Third Quarter Perspectives
Although global activity maintained its cyclical momentum in the second and part of the third quarter, it is continuously less synchronous, more fragile and more dependent on stimuli from the US. US trade, economic and international policies have become a source of shocks, with global repercussions in the appreciation of the USD, volatility of the Brent and global activity and trade expectations. Although so far this has not led to a risk event, the accumulation of global imbalances, the cycle itself reaching its end, and the US administration’s ability to provoke volatility on all levels on a global scale, make caution necessary. The current base scenario is an organized cyclical adjustment, though recently the probability of a more severe adjustment is growing.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018: Second Quarter Perspectives
It is noteworthy that global growth has maintained its momentum during the first quarter, ratifying expectations for growth very similar to 2017, both in speed and in composition. This growth will continue, backed by strong fiscal and monetary demand stimuli in both regions. Additionally, the United States fiscal policy, the maintenance of lax monetary policies at a global level and the strong inertia of spending and investment dynamics will be guarantors of this.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018
This report offers a general perspective of the key macroeconomic and financial trends for 2018, both globally and in the key economies, as well as an assessment regarding its interconnection with and impact on insurance activity. The global economy could grow 3.7 percent this year, one tenth more than in 2017, and above the expectations from 12 months ago. However, global economic activity also shows signs of stabilization, anticipating that maybe we are leading up to a change in cycle, which will materialize towards the end of 2019. In the case of the insurance industry, the worldwide growth forecast for 2018 anticipates a positive impact on the development of the global insurance market, which will be especially notable in emerging economies.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2017: Fourth Quarter Outlook
In this report the current global economic situation is reviewed, focusing on the countries that comprise MAPFRE’s market. We update activity, price and financial variable outlook, as well as the balance of risks and vulnerabilities the global economy is facing. This report highlights the development of global economic politics, with a special emphasis on the consequences for the global economy and the insurance market of the expected withdrawal of liquidity associated with the standardization of large central banks’ balance sheets.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2017: Third Quarter Outlook
This document offers MAPFRE Economic Research vision on the expected economic and sector outlook for 2017 / 2018. The issue focuses on the normalization process of global monetary policies, policy and political developments in the USA and the real side impact of politics in Europe and Latin America. In addition, the report also reviews how global imbalances evolve as to cast and render them into our forecasts. Forecast figures of this report have been updated as of July 17th 2017.
Economic and Sector Outlook 2017: Second Quarter Outlook
The strong economic pulse in the first quarter of 2017 foresees a light acceleration in global growth for this year, not without certain political and economic uncertainties, which are analyzed in this quarterly review. This report updates the status of the economic overview and its influence on the insurance market. The global insurance industry is noting acceleration in business, both in Life and Non-Life, with a contribution from emerging countries above what was initially expected. This growth is expected to continue throughout 2017-2018, both in developed and emerging markets, the latter leading the path to growth.
2017 Economic and Sector Outlook
Situational report prepared by MAPFRE Economic Research offering a general view of the key financial and macroeconomic trends for 2017, as well as an assessment of their interconnection and impact on insurance activity. The first part of the report analyzes the global economic environment, characterizing it as “secular stagnation” (low level of economic activity, low inflation, and low interest rates). This conceptual framework is the starting point to evaluate the loss of monetary policy effectiveness, and the growing need to more active use of fiscal policy as a way of injecting new stimulus into economic activity. The second part of the report offers an analysis of the mechanisms through which the global economic activity will affect the insurance sector. A general conceptual framework is included, as well as a quantitative analysis that foresees an acceleration in the insurance business throughout 2017-2018 both in developing and emerging markets, the latter leading the path toward growth. Further, it provides a perspective on the major regulatory trends that can affect the insurance sector in 2017.